{"id":881,"date":"2025-05-24T15:08:44","date_gmt":"2025-05-24T15:08:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingriley.com\/?p=881"},"modified":"2025-05-24T15:15:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-24T15:15:36","slug":"why-are-we-guessing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingriley.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/24\/why-are-we-guessing\/","title":{"rendered":"\u731c\u5b57?\u5230\u5e95\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u9019\u9ebc\u505a?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u597d\u50cf\u53ea\u6709\u82f1\u8a9e\u6559\u5b78\u73fe\u5834\u6709\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5834\u666f\uff0c\u8981\u4f60\u8b80\u4e00\u500b\u6bb5\u843d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7c97\u9ad4\u5b57\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u984c\u76ee\u554f\u4f60<br>What does XXX mean?<br>\u51fa\u984c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f:\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u4e0d\u6703XXX\u9019\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8981\u4f60\u5f9e\u524d\u5f8c\u6587\u300c\u731c\u300d\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d?<br>\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u4e00\u76f4\u9ed1\u4eba\u554f\u865f???<br>1. \u6211\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u8ddf\u6211\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u731c\u5c0d\u800c\u5beb\u5c0d\u7b54\u6848\u9019\u5169\u8005\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5340\u5225?<br>2. \u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8b8a\u76f8\u9f13\u52f5\u6703\u7684\u5b57\u4e0d\u5fc5\u591a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u731c\u5c0d\u4e86\u5927\u6982\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8108\u7d61?<br>\u6700\u8fd1\u958b\u59cb\u5927\u91cf\u95b1\u8b80\u5fb7\u6587\u66f8\u7c4d\u6709\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u611f\u89f8\uff0c\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u548c\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5dee\u5225\u5462?\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u5dee\u7570\u5c31\u662f:\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u6642\u5019\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u751f\u5b57\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6709\u90a3\u8981\u8b80\u591a\u5c11\u624d\u6703\u9047\u5230?\u6709\u4eba\u8b80\u4e2d\u6587\u66f8\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u55ce?\u4e0d\u6703\u5427?!\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4e2d\u6587\u66f8\u51fa\u73fe\u6210\u8a9e\u3001\u7247\u8a9e\u3001\u96d9\u95dc\u8a9e\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u9084\u662f\u7121\u75dbKO\u5427?!<br><br>\u4f46\u662f\u8b80\u5916\u6587\u66f8\u5c31\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4f60\u591a\u52aa\u529b\u3001\u5b78\u5f97\u5b57\u591a\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5e38\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u3002\u800c\u5916\u8a9e\u5b78\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5f8c\u7684\u78ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8209\u51e1\u65b0\u805e\u3001\u5831\u7d19\u3001\u96dc\u8a8c\u3001\u5ee3\u544a\u751a\u81f3\u6587\u5b78\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b49\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u53bb\u67e5\u4e0d\u6703\u7684\u55ae\u5b57\u6642\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u5c31\u56e0\u70ba\u6f0f\u7f3a\u4e86\u90a3\u500b\u5b57\u800c\u5c07\u6574\u6bb5\u6587\u7ae0\u7406\u89e3\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<br>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u73fe\u8c61\u6b63\u597d\u5c31\u662f\u5361\u5728&#8221;intermediate plateau&#8221; [1] \u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u90a3\u500b\u83ab\u540d\u731c\u5b57\u6587\u5316\u7d66\u8aa4\u5c0e\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e38\u5e38\u6709\u4eba\u554f\u6211\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u807d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f4f\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5916\u570b\u7db2\u7d05\u7bc0\u76ee\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7121\u5b57\u5e55\u807d\u61c2\u3002\u6211\u56de\u7b54:\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u5076\u723e\u9084\u662f\u6709\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u800c\u807d\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u90a3\u500b\u5b57\u3002\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u5b57\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u807d\u61c2?\u8981\u731c\u55ce?\u90a3\u4f60\u600e\u9ebc\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u731c\u5c0d?\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u8cb7\u6a02\u900f\u55ce?\u731c\u5c0d\u4e86\u53c8\u5982\u4f55?\u4ee5\u5f8c\u5c31\u4e0d\u7528\u5b78\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u4e86\u55ce?<br><br>\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5e73\u5747\u8a5e\u5f59\u91cf\u662f\u5169\u842c\u5230\u56db\u842c\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59\u4e4b\u9593\u3002\u9ad8\u968e\u7684\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5927\u7d04\u53ea\u6703\u4e00\u842c\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59(\u8981\u9054\u5230\u8a5e\u5f59\u7834\u842c\u5f88\u56f0\u96e3)\u3002\u4e2d\u968e\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5927\u7d04\u67035000\u500b\u8a5e\u3002\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u8a5e\u5f59\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u751a\u81f31\/4\u90a3\u662f\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u807d\u61c2\u8b80\u61c2?5000\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59\u53ef\u662f\u5b78\u9f61\u524d\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8036\uff0c\u4e0d\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\u3002<br>\u731c\u5b57\u771f\u7684\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u4e0d\u6703\u7684\u5b57\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u5f8c\u5b78\u8d77\u4f86\u3002<br>[1] \u610f\u601d\u662f\u8a9e\u8a00\u5b78\u5230\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6d41\u5229\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u74f6\u9838\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\u5df2\u7d93\u53ef\u4ee5\u61c9\u4ed8\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65e5\u5e38\u6240\u9700\uff0c\u800c\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u505c\u6b62\u5b78\u7fd2\u65b0\u77e5\u3002<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u597d\u50cf\u53ea\u6709\u82f1\u8a9e\u6559\u5b78\u73fe\u5834\u6709\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5834\u666f\uff0c\u8981\u4f60\u8b80\u4e00\u500b\u6bb5\u843d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7c97\u9ad4\u5b57\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u984c\u76ee\u554f\u4f60What does XXX mean?\u51fa\u984c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f:\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u4e0d\u6703XXX\u9019\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8981\u4f60\u5f9e\u524d\u5f8c\u6587\u300c\u731c\u300d\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d?\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u4e00\u76f4\u9ed1\u4eba\u554f\u865f???1. \u6211\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u8ddf\u6211\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u731c\u5c0d\u800c\u5beb\u5c0d\u7b54\u6848\u9019\u5169\u8005\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5340\u5225?2. \u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8b8a\u76f8\u9f13\u52f5\u6703\u7684\u5b57\u4e0d\u5fc5\u591a\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u731c\u5c0d\u4e86\u5927\u6982\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8108\u7d61?\u6700\u8fd1\u958b\u59cb\u5927\u91cf\u95b1\u8b80\u5fb7\u6587\u66f8\u7c4d\u6709\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u611f\u89f8\uff0c\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u548c\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5dee\u5225\u5462?\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u5dee\u7570\u5c31\u662f:\u6bcd\u8a9e\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u6642\u5019\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u751f\u5b57\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6709\u90a3\u8981\u8b80\u591a\u5c11\u624d\u6703\u9047\u5230?\u6709\u4eba\u8b80\u4e2d\u6587\u66f8\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u55ce?\u4e0d\u6703\u5427?!\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4e2d\u6587\u66f8\u51fa\u73fe\u6210\u8a9e\u3001\u7247\u8a9e\u3001\u96d9\u95dc\u8a9e\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u9084\u662f\u7121\u75dbKO\u5427?! \u4f46\u662f\u8b80\u5916\u6587\u66f8\u5c31\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4f60\u591a\u52aa\u529b\u3001\u5b78\u5f97\u5b57\u591a\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5e38\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u3002\u800c\u5916\u8a9e\u5b78\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5f8c\u7684\u78ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8209\u51e1\u65b0\u805e\u3001\u5831\u7d19\u3001\u96dc\u8a8c\u3001\u5ee3\u544a\u751a\u81f3\u6587\u5b78\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b49\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u53bb\u67e5\u4e0d\u6703\u7684\u55ae\u5b57\u6642\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u5c31\u56e0\u70ba\u6f0f\u7f3a\u4e86\u90a3\u500b\u5b57\u800c\u5c07\u6574\u6bb5\u6587\u7ae0\u7406\u89e3\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u73fe\u8c61\u6b63\u597d\u5c31\u662f\u5361\u5728&#8221;intermediate plateau&#8221; [1] \u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u88ab\u90a3\u500b\u83ab\u540d\u731c\u5b57\u6587\u5316\u7d66\u8aa4\u5c0e\u4e86\u3002 \u5e38\u5e38\u6709\u4eba\u554f\u6211\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u807d\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f4f\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5916\u570b\u7db2\u7d05\u7bc0\u76ee\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7121\u5b57\u5e55\u807d\u61c2\u3002\u6211\u56de\u7b54:\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u90fd\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u5076\u723e\u9084\u662f\u6709\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u800c\u807d\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u90a3\u500b\u5b57\u3002\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u5b57\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u807d\u61c2?\u8981\u731c\u55ce?\u90a3\u4f60\u600e\u9ebc\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u731c\u5c0d?\u4f60\u662f\u5728\u8cb7\u6a02\u900f\u55ce?\u731c\u5c0d\u4e86\u53c8\u5982\u4f55?\u4ee5\u5f8c\u5c31\u4e0d\u7528\u5b78\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u4e86\u55ce? \u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5e73\u5747\u8a5e\u5f59\u91cf\u662f\u5169\u842c\u5230\u56db\u842c\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59\u4e4b\u9593\u3002\u9ad8\u968e\u7684\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5927\u7d04\u53ea\u6703\u4e00\u842c\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59(\u8981\u9054\u5230\u8a5e\u5f59\u7834\u842c\u5f88\u56f0\u96e3)\u3002\u4e2d\u968e\u975e\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u5927\u7d04\u67035000\u500b\u8a5e\u3002\u9084\u4e0d\u5230\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u8a5e\u5f59\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u751a\u81f31\/4\u90a3\u662f\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u807d\u61c2\u8b80\u61c2?5000\u500b\u8a5e\u5f59\u53ef\u662f\u5b78\u9f61\u524d\u6bcd\u8a9e\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8036\uff0c\u4e0d\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7db2\u67e5\u3002\u731c\u5b57\u771f\u7684\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u4e0d\u6703\u7684\u5b57\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u5f8c\u5b78\u8d77\u4f86\u3002[1] \u610f\u601d\u662f\u8a9e\u8a00\u5b78\u5230\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6d41\u5229\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u74f6\u9838\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\u5df2\u7d93\u53ef\u4ee5\u61c9\u4ed8\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65e5\u5e38\u6240\u9700\uff0c\u800c\u5f88\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u505c\u6b62\u5b78\u7fd2\u65b0\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"continue-reading-button\"> <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/tingriley.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/24\/why-are-we-guessing\/\">Continue reading<i 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content=\"\u597d\u50cf\u53ea\u6709\u82f1\u8a9e\u6559\u5b78\u73fe\u5834\u6709\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5834\u666f\uff0c\u8981\u4f60\u8b80\u4e00\u500b\u6bb5\u843d\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7c97\u9ad4\u5b57\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u984c\u76ee\u554f\u4f60What does XXX mean?\u51fa\u984c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f:\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u4e0d\u6703XXX\u9019\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8981\u4f60\u5f9e\u524d\u5f8c\u6587\u300c\u731c\u300d\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d?\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u4e00\u76f4\u9ed1\u4eba\u554f\u865f???1. \u6211\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u8ddf\u6211\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u731c\u5c0d\u800c\u5beb\u5c0d\u7b54\u6848\u9019\u5169\u8005\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5340\u5225?2. 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mean?\u51fa\u984c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u61c9\u8a72\u662f:\u5047\u8a2d\u4f60\u4e0d\u6703XXX\u9019\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8981\u4f60\u5f9e\u524d\u5f8c\u6587\u300c\u731c\u300d\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u300c\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d?\u5c0d\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u4e00\u76f4\u9ed1\u4eba\u554f\u865f???1. \u6211\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u9019\u500b\u5b57\u8ddf\u6211\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u731c\u5c0d\u800c\u5beb\u5c0d\u7b54\u6848\u9019\u5169\u8005\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5340\u5225?2. 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\u4f46\u662f\u8b80\u5916\u6587\u66f8\u5c31\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4f60\u591a\u52aa\u529b\u3001\u5b78\u5f97\u5b57\u591a\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5e38\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u67e5\u5b57\u5178\u3002\u800c\u5916\u8a9e\u5b78\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5f8c\u7684\u78ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8209\u51e1\u65b0\u805e\u3001\u5831\u7d19\u3001\u96dc\u8a8c\u3001\u5ee3\u544a\u751a\u81f3\u6587\u5b78\u4f5c\u54c1\u7b49\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u53bb\u67e5\u4e0d\u6703\u7684\u55ae\u5b57\u6642\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u5c31\u56e0\u70ba\u6f0f\u7f3a\u4e86\u90a3\u500b\u5b57\u800c\u5c07\u6574\u6bb5\u6587\u7ae0\u7406\u89e3\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u73fe\u8c61\u6b63\u597d\u5c31\u662f\u5361\u5728&quot;intermediate plateau&quot; [1] 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